The FireRickReilly 2010 MLB Preview: Seattle Mariners

I’m going to try something new here, if you all don’t mind: a team by team preview of the upcoming baseball season. These will be in addition to the regular Reilly-bashing articles, and shouldn’t cut into the those. So we’ll see how this goes. I’m also toying around with the idea of making a separate page for these and other original pieces. Let me know what you think about this project (or anything else on the site for that matter). If you think it gets in the way of the usual vitriol here, let me know and maybe I’ll work on making it a different page.

As a house-keeping note, most of the stats below, and all the player links are from FanGraphs. It’ll be that way in future previews as well.

Let’s get started.

Seattle Mariners (2009 Record 85-77; 3rd place AL West); Manager: Don Wakamatsu

The Mariners became the darlings of this off-season by bringing in Cliff Lee and Chone Figgins, and have high expectations for 2010, coming off a decent a 2009 campaign. Led by Ichiro Suzuki on offense, they didn’t have much else last year outside of a half-year surge by Russell Branyan. There were other bright spots, though, including the emergence of CF Franklin Gutierrez. Widely regarded as the finest defensive outfielder, Gutierrez put together a decent season at the plate as well with a line of  .283/.339/.425 to go along with 18 HRs and 70 RBI. Regardless, the Mariners ranked dead last among AL teams in runs scored last year, and that needs to change if Seattle wants a chance to compete. They hope brining in Chone Figgins, Milton Bradley, Casey Kotchman, and a slew of others this offseason will help.

Pitching

With the addition of Cliff Lee, the Mariners now have one of the best one-two punches in the Majors with Lee and Felix Hernandez. Barring injury or a Steve Blass-like breakdown, Seattle fans can feel pretty good about 40% of their team’s games. After those two, however, things get a little shaky. The Mariners signed enigmatic pitcher Erik Bedard to a one year deal this offseason. He’s still lights-out when healthy…but he’s had a very difficult time staying healthy. Still, if he can put together a full season, he’s defintely a plus as number three guy. Beyond that they have Ryan Rowland-Smith, who was decent (1.18 WHIP) in limited action, but needs to strike out more batters; Ian Snell; and Doug Fister. None of the guys behind King Felix and Lee are sure things, but if one of them can step in as a solid number three man, then the Mariners will be in good shape.

In the bullpen, David Aardsma developed into a good closer last season, and Mark Lowe is a top-flight set-up man.

Infield

From the end of last season, the Mariners have overhauled their infield, bringing in 3B Chone Figgins, SS Jack Wilson, and 1B Casey Kotchman. All three are near the top of their position in fielding. Wilson is first among shortstops in UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating–basically runs-saved above the average. It’s an imperfect stat, but the best fielding stat out there right now. A decent explanation can be found at FanGraphs), while Figgins is third among third-baseman, and Kotchman is also near the top. The weakest link of the bunch, fielding-wise, is 2B Jose Lopez, but he does bring some versatility to the table–he can play all four infield positions.

The group does bring more than simply fielding skills. Figgins posted a respectable .395 OBP last season, drawing 101 walks, scoring 114 runs, and stealing 42 bases (with 71% success). For a team ranking last in runs scored, his speed and ability to get on base should help immensely. Lopez is not very good at getting on base, but did show some power last year hitting 25 HRs and knocking in 96 runs. Kotchman regressed somewhat last year, posting his lowest Slugging percentage, but he’s still relatively young, and as a lefty, hitter-friendly right-field at Saefco might benefit him. Wilson is such a good defender that he’d be a plus player even his average hovered around the Mendoza Line–which is good, because last year he posted an OPS of .652, well below league average. He does, however, have his moments.

As far as backups go, Ryan Garko was a solid acquisition this offseason. Jack Hannahan is purely a utility guy, and Mike Carp showed some promise in extremely limited work last season, but he may start the season at AAA with Garko coming in.

The bottom line though is that Seattle has one of the best defensive infields in baseball, and arguably the best left side of the infield. They’ll hold their own at the plate, too.

Outfield

In centerfield, Franklin Gutirrez’s defense would make him worth a starting spot, but he really did have a breakout year offensively (283/.339/.425) in 2009, which adds to his value tremendously. In left, the acquistion of Milton Bradley could wind up being a huge deal, but then again, it’s Milton Bradley. His career line (.277/.371/.450) is very good, but his character issues are well-documented, and not only to they keep him off the field at times, but they seem to affect his playing as well. Not to mention he has been somewhat injury-prone over the years. Still, if he can keep it all together, he’ll be a great addition. Ichiro continues to man right field, where he’s both a plus defender and a plus hitter (though he could stand to take a few more walks).

As far as depth goes, the Mariners are pretty solid with Ken Griffey Jr., Ryan Garko, Eric Byrnes, Michel Saunders and Ryan Langerhans. None of these guys are great, but they have a history of solid play. Griffey is old and will spend a lot of time at DH, and Byrnes is coming off a horrible season but he has played well before, and part-time role might suit him.

Catcher

Rob Johnson is weak with the bat, and there’s nothing to indicate that will change, but his defense is above average, and it appears that he handles the staff well. Backup Josh Bard is certainly able.

Designated Hitter

Ken Griffey Jr. is the “starter,” but with so many outfield reserves, combined with Griffey’s age, this is probably somewhat in flux. I expect Griffey to get first crack (and many second chances), but I suspect Seattle will go with the hot hand throughout the season, with Garko getting the first shot after Griffey.

Bottom Line

Bringing in Cliff Lee was huge, giving Seattle a great 1-2 punch at the top of their rotation. General manager Jack Zduriencik has made some excellent moves. His ability to see the undervaluing of defense and then going out and getting it has been a great asset. The Mariners defense should be extraordinairy, and it will need to save as many runs as possible since even with some clear offensive upgrades, I still don’t see the 2010 Mariners scoring a ton of runs. Despite bringing in Lee, Figgins, and Kotchman to help an already strong supporting cast, it will still be difficult to overtake the Angels, Zduriencik has at least give Seattle a fighting chance.