Thank God Gene Wojciechowski Isn’t a Scout

One day, people will realize that people who like to look at stats to aid in their evaluation of baseball players are not trying to suck the fun out of baseball, or play the game on an old computer class-style computer like Oregon Trail. Sadly that day is not today. The estimable Gene Wojciechowski is back. This time his column is a little less ridiculous than the last time we visited with him…but that’s not saying much. Anyway, it’s about “Scout X” (I assume that’s Geno) and his predictions for the 2010 MLB season, which are either utterly without substance, or stupid, but hey, he’s just judging by his grizzled, old eyeball, and if that was good enough for Branch effing Rickey, then it’s good enough for Gene (Scout X). Before we get started, I’d like to share with you a video. My first reaction, as I’ve said before, to Gene Wokciechowski is always good because of this guy. Then I remember they’re not the same people.

Right eyes can see all in baseball

Scout X picks the winners, reveals the frauds and uncovers the truth

Call him Scout X.

I’d like to call him Gene, but I’ll play along. I guess there’s a possibility that this is a real scout, but I doubt it.

Big league lifer. One of the best in the business. Has forgotten more about baseball than you and I will ever know.

You’re so modest.

Opening Day is April 4. Scout X is way ahead of you.

This statement becomes oh so ironic as we go along. I’m giddy.

Can anybody beat the Yankees? I don’t see how. I really don’t see how.

Well, OK. They’re good. Tell me why.

Now with Javier Vazquez in the rotation, it gets even tougher. I know he’s coming from the other league and his numbers are inflated, but he’s going to make a difference. You’re talking about CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte and Vazquez. It’s hard to compete with that.

That certainly is a good rotation, I’ll give you that.

For me, Phil Hughes would probably be the fifth starter. Joba Chamberlain would be the set-up guy. I don’t think Joba has the intellectual capacity to go through a lineup three times. I think you put him out there and let him blow everybody away for an inning or two.

Well, two things here. If New York’s top four stay healthy, then it doesn’t really matter who their fifth starter is. Also, no mention of the Yankees offense? Really?

I actually agree with Scout Gene on using Hughes as the fifth starter, but not because Joba is a dumb dumb. And that’s what Gene is saying here. Seriously, he doesn’t have the intellectual capacity? Yeah! Just let him blow by a few guys, the big retard! Stupid. Maybe if you compared the WHIPS and K/BB ratios of the two guys, we could discuss it instead of just saying Chamberlain’s too much of an idiot to start. Yeesh.

Now Boston has Josh Beckett, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, Dice-K, Tim Wakefield and John Lackey. And their bullpen is pretty darn good. I think they’re good enough for a wild card. I don’t see a second-place team in the other divisions being as good as Boston.

Fair enough. But what about their hitters? Fielders?

People are talking about Tampa, but I just don’t think, at the end of the game, they can compete with the Yankees and Red Sox. Not yet, anyway. But starting-pitching-wise, this kid Jeff Niemann, they rave about him. And now’s the time for David Price to go out and pitch. They watched his innings last season.

It’s always going to be tough sledding for any team not the Red Sox or Yankees in the AL East, but you do remember it was only two years ago that the Rays made it to the World Series? And with Niemann and Price going full seasons, and a formidable offense made even better by the emergence of Ben Zobrist, you can’t just write them off can you? What about their offense? You do realize they have hitters, right?

 Forget this rotation stuff. Joba can’t handle it. Make him a set-up guy, a role he owns, and be done with it, Scout X says.

 Just in case you all forgot, Joba’s stupid. Just thought I’d throw that out there again, randomly.

I don’t pay to see games, but if I had to, I’d pay to see Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain of the San Francisco Giants. But if you give me the choice between Lincecum and Cain, I’ll take Cain for the next six, seven years.

Huh. I’d probably choose Lincecum.

Cain can really pitch, man. Lincecum, he’s a freak. He weighs 160 or so pounds. He’s a max-effort guy with a bad delivery. Don’t get me wrong — he punched out 261 guys last year and he might pitch forever. But it’s just that Cain pitches with such ease. He won 14 games last year with a 2.89 ERA. Lincecum won 15 with a 2.48. See what I’m saying?

It seems like you’re saying that Lincecum was better last year. I forgot, though that stats don’t mean anything. They’re evil things created by evil computers and pushed upon the unsuspecting masses by the evil human pawns of the new world computer order. But still, you just said that Lincecum had more Ks, a better ERA, and more wins, but you’d take Cain because he’ll play longer than Lincecum, even though Lincecum might play forever. OK. Solid logic.

My favorite pitcher in the National League is Arizona’s Dan Haren. Love Dan Haren. He’s a pitcher. He’s got impeccable command. He’s got the stuff. But he got no run support last year. If he would have been on the New York Yankees, he would have won 25 games.

My favorite pitcher is Dan Haren because he’s a pitcher. He fits the criteria.

And as much as I hate to say it, I’d pay to watch Manny Ramirez. I’d pay to watch him hit. Play left field? No. In a playoff game about three years ago, he’s going toward the line — there’s a line drive — he kind of stumbles and his hat falls off and it goes past the ball’s path and the ball rolls into his hat. He’s looking around for the ball. I thought I was going to die. That was at Fenway Park. But the guy can hit.

Thanks for the insight, man. If it weren’t for your grizzled, yet keen sense of sight, I would have never been able to ascertain that Manny was really good at hitting but really awful at fielding. On the bright side, half way through the column, we remember that there are, in fact, hitters in baseball. The way you were talking, I thought they were just gonna play 2010 in a carnival pitching booth.

I’d pay to see Joe Mauer play. I’d pay to see CC Sabathia pitch.

No way! You’d pay to see the reigning MVP and a perennial Cy Young candidate? Wow! Thanks for your expert analysis. Without you, I’d be paying to see Willie Harris and Joe Beimel. 

A-Rod is hard to watch. He’s such a phony. Hard to stomach. But he’s a great player. A great player.

How is he a phony? The steroids thing? You should explain yourself when you call people phonies. Who the hell do you think you are, Holden Caulfield?

Also, A-Rod’s a great player? I hadn’t heard.

Mariano Rivera, of course. And Albert Pujols.

As far as the younger players, that’s easy: Evan Longoria of the Rays. I like the way he plays the game. And Andrew Bailey, the closer for Oakland, has no fear. He’s aggressive, works fast and throws strikes. I like his game very much.

Why can’t it just be because they’re good? Why does it always have to be about “playing the game the right way” or “having no fear”? Listen, I think that scouts are good. I bet most of them use stats, and “goodness at baseball” to help their eyes determine quality of talent. It’s writers like Gene who give them a bad name. And perhaps this particular real scout…I’m not sure. I can’t decide whether this is a real guy or  not…but if he’s a real scout, well…I hope he doesn’t work for my team.

Justin Upton of the D-backs is so talented. And everyone knows about Zack Greinke of the Royals.

Now if you’re asking me my favorite guy to watch, it’s the Kung-Fu Panda — Pablo Sandoval of the Giants. Oh, is he funny. But he can rake. He can hit. He’s so fat and he’s so unorthodox. But he gets the barrel of the bat to the ball. You cannot teach somebody to hit like that.

He’s funny. He can hit. He can hit. He’s fat. He’s unorthodox. He can hit. You can’t teach that.

Hard-hitting, eagle-eyed analysis.

Also, Sandoval? Really? What about Hanley Ramirez? Or Pujols? Or Utley? My eyes, though comparatively less-grizzled, tell me that those guys are better players.

They list him at 5-11, 235, but it was more like 270 last season. And still he hit .330 and 25 [home runs] and 90 [RBIs] — in his first full year in the big leagues and in that ballpark [AT&T Park].

Two things: Are these brackets just to keep up the rouse of this being a real scout? I say yes. Number two: obviously Scout X/ Gene has forgotten about Tony Gwynn, and John Kruk, and Prince Fielder, and all these other big guys who could hit…I will say one thing: that grizzled old scout eye is a champ at the weight-guessing booth.

Seattle had the best offseason, but I still think the Angels are the class of the AL West. The Mariners had a lot of money to spend, but I’m not absolutely convinced about their offense.

That’s right, their offense is still probably sub-par, but they’re hedging their bets on being outstanding defensively. I am very intrigued to see how this works out for them.

But they’ve got King Felix [Hernandez]. If Cliff Lee is healthy and they get Erik Bedard back in June, they’re going to be a tough one-two-three. If they get to the postseason, they’re going to be tough to beat with that rotation.

 The Mariners were busy this offseason. Still, Scout X isn’t ready to take the AL West crown from Mike Scioscia and the Angels quite yet.

 I wonder if Scout X knows that Mike Scioscia doesn’t pitch or hit or field. I wonder if Scout X knows the name a player on the Angels. Doesn’t seem like it.

Even though I think the Angels are going to win that division, I don’t see them getting past the wild card. They’ve got to play Boston every year.

OK. But they’re different teams every year. You understand that, right? I don’t buy this whole “Team X has Team Y’s number” thing when spread out over different seasons.

In the NL East, Philly wins, but I’m worried about Brad Lidge.

That’s it? That’s all? Brad Lidge? Lidge sucked last year and they still got to the World Series. So, I guess we’re basically saying the same thing…but why is Lidge your only analysis?

We’re going to skip ahead here a bit.

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When I look for breakout players, I look for good, young players who have some experience who are on good clubs, with good players around them.

So you look for good players? Who are young? Insightful. Me, I like Jamie Moyer to have a breakout campaign. But look for Julio Franco to give him a good fight.

I think the Dodgers win the NL West. Great bullpen. But three of those guys — Jonathan Broxton, Ronald Belisario and Ramon Troncoso — combined for more than 200 games last season. That’s a lot. There’s been studies done about productivity for relievers after they pitch in 70 games the year before. The drop-off is pretty good. So that’s a concern.

Bullpen. That’s all. They have a good bullpen. Good lord, man, let’s talk about the team when predicting division winners. Good gracious. This is the opposite of substantive. What about Matt Kemp? Or James Loney? What about their starting pitchers? You know, the guys aren’t basically interchangeable, like relievers are.

I think the Cardinals win the NL Central.

I think the Cubs have a chance in that division. They’ve got some underachieving guys who have had great years in the past. I think anything’s possible in that division, except with the Pirates, who have no chance.

But when I think of Carlos Zambrano, I think of a guy with great talent, but below-average command of his emotions. Flighty. His 2009 season wasn’t that bad, but he only threw 169 innings for a guy making $19 million.

Randy Wells pitched really well for the Cubs. I guess he found out this spring he needed glasses. I wouldn’t give them to him. I wouldn’t change a thing.

Their most consistent guy is Ted Lilly. [Cubs GM Jim] Hendry took a lot of grief for that signing, but Lilly’s won 15, 17, 12 in the last three years.

The Cubs say Randy Wells needs glasses. The guy won 12 games with a 3.05 ERA last year. Scout X doesn’t want him anywhere near an optometrist.

But I think the Cardinals win because of Pujols, Matt Holliday and their starting pitching. Ryan Franklin does it with mirrors as a closer, but he gets them out. A lot of people don’t like him, but he gets the job done. That’s all that matters.

This column sure drones on, doesn’t it? So, I like the Cardinals…because the Cubs have some good pitching, but Carlos Zambrano is a flighty little bitch, so that, combined with Pujols, et. al.: Cardinals win!

The AL Central is a tough call. At first I’d say Tigers, Twins and then White Sox.

I mean, you knew the Tigers were going to sign Johnny Damon. The White Sox weren’t going to pay that kind of money [$8 million]. [Tigers owner Mike] Ilitch doesn’t give a crap. He’ll sell some more pizzas.

I don’t think you can call the Sox out for not spending money, what with Alex Rios and Jake Peavy, they just don’t always spend it wisely (that’s an understatement).

Detroit’s starting rotation has some question marks, but I like Max Scherzer. People don’t like his delivery, but I like his stuff. Nasty stuff. He’s poised to do some things.

Justin Verlander is a guy I should have mentioned before. One of the class pitchers of the league. Rick Porcello is 21 years old. Armando Galarraga got worn out last year, but he has good stuff. Jeremy Bonderman is coming off an injury.

I’d like to list off the pitchers of the White Sox: Jake Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks, Gavin Floyd. I’ve just done the exact same amount of analysis.

I like the rookies in their lineup: Austin Jackson and Scott Sizemore. And Miguel Cabrera is a monster.

But the more I look at it, I’ll go with the Twins. The starting rotation is OK, but those four guys in the bullpen — Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan — are nails, man. That’s the best bullpen in the American League. Mijares? Left-handed hitters have no chance against him.

So if the Twins are ahead after six innings, they’ve got a good chance to win with that bullpen.

For the record, I like the Twins. I also think they’ll edge out the Tigers…but this bullpen nonsense. I’d like give you some quick statistics: Overall, across the entire Major Leagues, here is the record for the team who’s leading after 6 innings: 1832-288. That’s right: 1832-288. So basically, you could say: “If [insert team  here] are ahead after six innings, they’ve got a good chance to win.” In fact, they have a much better than good chance of winning. Also, last year in such situations: Twins 68-13; Tigers 61-10. So, whatever. That’s a stupid reason, Scout X. But, Nails, man, nails. Like what you put in a coffin.

 Twins have a pair of MVPs in Mauer and Morneau, so Scout X is sticking with Minnesota in the AL Central.

 That’s a much better reason.

Skipping ahead again.

—-                       ——                      ——

Phillies in the NL East, Dodgers in NL West, Cardinals in the NL Central. NL wild card is Colorado.

In the American League you’ve got the usual suspects: Yankees in the East, Twins in the Central, Angels in the West, Boston as the wild card.

So….exactly what it was last year? Wait a second, is this a review of last season? That would kind of make sense.

In the NLCS, I’ll take the Cardinals and the Dodgers. I can’t take the Phillies because Lidge scares the hell out of me. Because of his inconsistency, they’re vulnerable late in the game. In a playoff situation, the closer is in there every night.

I think Broxton, even though he blew a lot of saves last year, has a chance to be special. He throws 100 mph, and he’s got the best grade you can have on a slider.

But that didn’t hurt them last year, really at all. Even though they lost the World Series, none of those losses were Lidge’s fault. Also, if you’re keeping score, Gene/Scout X has not named a single other player on the Phillies, except for Roy Halladay in passing. Not Ryan Howard, not Chase Utley, not Cole Hamels…no one. And a guy who sucked last year when they still made it to the World Series, is supposedly going to kill them because the Dodgers have a good bullpen and Broxton throws hard…that’s it…Manny was mentioned in passing…no one else. This column sucks.

In the ALCS I’ve got to go with the Yankees and Boston.

Cardinals win the NLCS and the Yankees win the ALCS.

Yankees win the World Series.

When the season’s over, show me my picks again. I want to see how I did.

I have a question right now…what about the Rockies? You think they’re going to make the playoffs, but why? And still, throughout the whole thing, outside of naming players who are fun to watch, Gene/Scout X only named four hitters who are key to their team: Pujols, Holliday, Mauer, and Morneau. That’s it. Will there be a part two column in which hitters are addressed?

Let’s summarize:

Cain>Lincecum; Same playoff teams as last year; Yankees cannot be beaten; bullpen, bullpen, bullpen; there are only 4 hitters who are important to their teams; bullpen, bullpen, bullpen; Joba Chamberlain is an idiot. Thanks, Gene/ Scout X.

Finally…this may be an actual scout, but the way that it’s written seems like it’s all Gene. It skips around from first person to third person pretty indiscriminately so…at the very least, it’s a horrible writing job by Gene, so there.