The FireRickReilly 2010 MLB Preview: Detroit Tigers
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Detroit Tigers: (2009 Record 86-77; 2nd Place AL Central) Manager: Jim Leyland
The Tigers are an interesting story. After years of toiling in the basement of the American League, the Tigers made it to the World Series in 2006. In the two years afterward, Detroit brought in all sorts of highly-touted, and highly-priced, players, but haven’t been back to the playoffs since. Still, the team missed the postseason only after falling to the Twins in a play-in game.
Despite the team’s return to winning baseball, the Tigers are still somewhat marked by failure. Exhibit A in this regard is Dontrelle Willis. To say he has underachieved since coming to Detroit is like saying that Custer got into a bit of jam at Little Big Horn. The worst part is that the Tigers owe him $12 million in 2010. Further despite fielding Magglio Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, Curtis Granderson, and Justin Verlander, Detroit just hasn’t been able to put it all together. Two years ago, Verlander was awful. Last year he was outstanding, but Ordonez, Granderson, and Carlos Guillen struggled. But there are some reasons to be optimistic this year, not the least of which is that they play in a weak division. They don’t necessarily have to be world-beaters to make the playoffs.
Pitching:
Justin Verlander was great in 2009, and should continue his success in 2010. Last year he was 19-9 with a 3.45 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, with 10.09 K/9—all career highs, and all with a very unlucky .328 BABIP. Looks like his 2008 are a distant memory. The Tigers hope so, as they signed him to 5 year, $80 million contract this off-season. Rick Porcello is number two in the rotation. He had a solid rookie season last year with a 14-9 record, 3.96 ERA, and 1.34 WHIP. Porcello is an interesting case. His K/9 innings was a touch under 5, which is not great. However, he was on strict pitch count, and so we may see a slight bump in that rate this year. Really, though, Porcello’s strength is his sinker, which, when it’s on, keeps batted balls down—a potentially lethal combination for hitters at Comerica Park. After the top two, the Tigers’ rotation is a bunch of question marks. Jeremy Bonderman, Max Scherzer, and Nate Robertson all have immense talent. Bonderman had a good season in 2007, but at this point, he may be running out of time. Scherzer actually had a decent first full season with the Diamondbacks last year (9-11/4.12/1.34/) to go along with a very good 9.19 K/9. Moving to the better league may hurt him a bit, but he’s a very good number four and will probably end up being a solid number three man. He’s only 25, and should improve. Robertson worked mostly out of the bullpen last year and fought some injuries. Bottom line: he wasn’t very good, and you have to think that Detroit’s going to at least try Willis out again since they’re paying him so much.
Detroit brought in Jose Valverde this off-season. He’s a solid closer. Behind him, Joel Zumaya occasionally hits triple digits on the radar gun, but he struggled with injuries last year, and wasn’t all that effective when he did play. Zumaya certainly has the stuff, but he hasn’t pitched in 30 games since 2006. Overall, the bullpen is definitely a weakness for the Tigers.
Infield:
3B Brandon Inge had an excellent first half, but battled injuries and slowed down considerably in the second half. He’s a versatile player, as many fantasy owners in need of a catcher know, but I just don’t think he can hold up for whole season. Knee injuries tend to linger. At shortstop, Adam Everett has a very weak bat, with an OPS in the low 600s, but he is a very good fielder. 21-year-old prospect Gustavo Nunez is highly regarded by the Tigers’ front office, but he’s raw and Detroit would probably rather give him at least another season in the minors. The Tigers lost Placido Polanco to free agency this off-season, and Scott Sizemore is slated to make his Major League debut in 2010 and be the everyday starter at second base. He doesn’t have much power, but has showed a strong glove and the ability to get on base in the minors. Still, this is a bit of risk for the Tigers. Miguel Cabrera will man first base. He had a very good year in 2009, but needs to reign in his off-the-field troubles. The word is that he’s not drinking anymore, so that’s a good sign. He should be his usual excellent self in 2010.
Outfield:
The Tigers swapped outfielders with the Yankees, with Curtis Granderson going to New York, and Johnny Damon coming to Detroit. Damon is still good with the bat, and decent in the field, so he seems to be a good pick-up. He doesn’t steal a ton of bases anymore, but he wasn’t caught in any of his twelve tries last year. He’ll also see time at DH, with Ryan Raburn likely filling-in in the outfield. Magglio Ordonez had a tough year last year, even getting benched at one point. I could see the Tigers trying to move him this year if anyone will have him. He batted .310 in 2009, but nearly all of his power is gone. Further, he’s not really a good fielder anymore. Austin Jackson came over from the Yankees in the big Edwin Jackson/Curtis Granderson, three team deal. Jackson is a good, but not great, prospect, and looks like he’ll be the starting centerfielder for the Tigers in 2010. Jackson is fast and hit pretty well in the minors, but doesn’t have much power and he doesn’t walk enough. He’s also not a great fielder, which can easily be accentuated at Comerica.
Designated Hitter:
Carlos Guillen will be the designated hitter. He’s solid at the plate, but he’ll surely see time in the field at the corners and even the outfield, while Damon, Cabrera, Inge, and Ordonez get some starts at DH. He only played in 81 games last year, so we’ll see how his health holds up.
Catcher:
Gerald Laird doesn’t bring much at the plate, but he’s more than serviceable behind it. Twenty-three-old Alex Avila showed good power last year, albeit in only 61 Abs. He never showed nearly as much power in the minors as he did in his short stint in Detroit, but he has shown the ability to get on base in the minors. He could some time this year, and certainly has more hitting potential than Laird.
Bottom Line:
Like many teams in the AL Central, the Tigers have some considerable talent with Cabrera and Verlander, but they also have a lot of question marks. Ordonez, Guillen, and Inge are all aging and battled injuries last year. The pitching is volatile beyond the top two, and the bullpen is a weakness. Still, they should be able to compete with the Twins…for awhile. They’ll score runs, but I don’t see their pitching holding up. Also, they have two guys, Scott Sizemore and Austin Jackson, who will play key roles in 2010 when Opening Day will be their first Major League action. Even if they both play well, they almost certainly will go through significant slumps. Still, somehow I think they’ll stay in the hunt, cause that’s how it goes in the AL Central.
